Climate variability associated with childhood diarrhoea in southern Ethiopia

*Hunachew Beyene, Wakgari Deressa, Abera Kumie, Delia Grace

*College of Health Sciences, Hawassa University, P.O. Box 1560, Hawassa, Ethiopia; email: hunachew@gmail.com. Tele: +251911833015.

Abstract

Background: Diarrhea has been associated with climate factors. However, there is a lack of evidence at the local level in developing countries. The current study investigated the relationship between climate factors and childhood diarrhoea in southern Ethiopia.

Methods: We assessed the association between childhood diarrhoeal incidence and climatic factors in Southern Ethiopia in Marich 2018. Diarrhoeal morbidity report for 19 districts was obtained from the Health Management Information System database of the regional health bureau from July 2011 to December 2016). Mean monthly precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature for the same year was obtained from the Ethiopian Metrological Agency. A negative binomial regression model was used to establish the relationship between monthly diarrhoeal incidence and climatic factors.

Result: The estimated incidence rate ratio (IRR) of under-five diarrhoea increased by a factor of 1.27   (95%CI: 1.10, 1.47) with a unit change in the log of the population density while holding all other variables in the model constant.  With a 1 ^OC increase in the mean monthly maximum temperature, the childhood diarrhoea IRR increased by a factor of 1.03 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.05). There was a significant inverse relationship between childhood diarrhoea and monthly mean precipitation (IRR: 0.9992, 95%CI: .9989, .9997) at one month lag and the mean monthly minimum temperature at one month lag (IRR: 0.9682, 95% CI:  0.9488, 0.9881). Winter and autumn seasons compared to spring, while holding the other variables constant in the model, had 1.312 (95% CI: 1.177, 1.462) and 1.595   (95% CI: 1.437, 1.772)   greater IRR of childhood diarrhoea.

Conclusion: Our study identified the seasonality of childhood diarrhoea and the existence of health-climate interactions. Targeting mitigation and adaptation strategies need to be made to tackle under-five diarrhoea. The findings could be applicable to other areas with similar geographical and climatic features.